In his statement, former Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) Cabraal, claimed that the six-month road map of the CBSL has been a resounding success, particularly with expected inflows materialising one month before the expiry of the road map.
To check this claim, FactCheck.lk compared the fourteen quantifiable targets for the government and CBSL outlined in the six-month plan against the actual numbers from the CBSL and other sources for the period starting from 1 October 2021 to 28 February 2022.
Exhibit 1 shows that of the six key quantifiable economic targets mentioned in the plan, none had been achieved by the end of February, at the time the former governor made his statement.
Exhibit 2 shows that of the eight secondary targets in the plan there is evidence of only one being achieved. Four targets on debt financing have not been achieved, and there is no information available on three.
Since the government has failed to achieve all of the six key targets, failed on four of the eight secondary targets and succeeded in only one (with no information on the rest) it is doubly inappropriate to evaluate the roadmap as a success.
Therefore, we classify his statement as BLATANTLY FALSE.
NB: Only targets that can be assessed with a quantitative measure by the end of February 2022 were assessed in this factcheck. Targets on real GDP growth and ISB exposure were not assessed as the GDP data was not released for the year 2021 at the time of assessing the statement.
*FactCheck.lk’s verdict is based on the most recent information that is publicly accessible. As with every fact check, if new information becomes available, FactCheck.lk will revisit the assessment.
Central Bank of Sri Lanka, The Six-Month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic & Financial System Stability (01 October 2021) https://www.cbsl.gov.lk/sites/default/files/cbslweb_documents/press/presentation_20211001_the_six_month_road_map_for_ensuring_macroeconomic_and_financial_system_stability_e.pdf
Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Weekly Economic Indicators (September 2021 to 04 March 2022), available at https://www.cbsl.gov.lk/en/statistics/economic-indicators/weekly-indicators [last accessed: 29 March 2022]
Department of Census and Statistics, Movements of CCPI (February 2022), available at http://www.statistics.gov.lk/InflationAndPrices/StaticalInformation/MonthlyCCPI/MovementsoftheCCPI [last accessed: 29 March 2022]
Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Monetary Policy Review No 2 of 2022 (March 2022) available at https://www.cbsl.gov.lk/sites/default/files/cbslweb_documents/press/pr/press_20220304_Monetary_Policy_Review_No_2_2022_e_D9fs3.pdf [last accessed: 29 March 2022]
Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Press release – Government securities (September 2021 to March 2022) available at https://www.cbsl.gov.lk/en/press/press-releases/government-securities [last accessed: 29 March 2022]
Uditha Jayasinghe, Sri Lanka devalues rupee, seen as step towards getting IMF help’, Reuters (08 March 2022), available at: https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/sri-lanka-allow-rupee-weaken-230-per-dollar-2022-03-07/ [last accessed: 29 March 2022]
High Commission of India Colombo, Press Release – USD 500 million LOC Agreement for purchase of petroleum products (02 February 2022) https://hcicolombo.gov.in/press?id=eyJpdiI6InZXRkpFOUhwdHk5M2ZkUGgyS0NBOWc9PSIsInZhbHVlIjoiT3NaeHNYNmtWbHdcL2ZxVXFDUDBDM2c9PSIsIm1hYyI6ImI2MDliNTM3OTgxZWY0NjNmZGNhNTIwMDY1YmQyZGY5NzVjYmNlNjRjMjIwMDhlZDE1ZjgwMzRmNGI2NDZkYmMifQ==
High Commission of India Colombo, Press Release – Dr. S. Jaishankar and Hon’ble Basil Rajapaksa finalize large Indian support to Sri Lanka (16 January 2022) https://hcicolombo.gov.in/press?id=eyJpdiI6Ik1kd3BqNDQrUW45SGtIaWtcL1JNa0pBPT0iLCJ2YWx1ZSI6Ikp1bXlwa1Yrd2RlXC9LNkFFRHplb0RBPT0iLCJtYWMiOiJhNjgyMzNiYjhiYWRmNGUzMDUxNDYwMjM1MTk4MTZkMjRlZDZjZGJjNTgwY2MxNzFjZDQ1NDNkYzdjOTRjMmNmIn0=