Dr. Dunusinghe compares growth in export growth: Correctly but not appropriately

Fact Check

Dr. Priyanga Dunusinghe, a Professor in Economics at the University of Colombo, argues that Sri Lanka’s recent export growth does not show significant growth and is similar to the country’s long-term historical trend. He cited an annual growth of 6.75% for the period 1978–2024 and compared this with the export performance in 2025.

FactCheck.lk evaluates this claim by examining three questions: (1) Is the annual export growth rate between 1978 and 2024, 6.75%; (2) Is export growth in 2025 (compared to 2024) similar or lower to the annual growth since 1978; and (3) Is a comparison of annual export growth since 1978 appropriate for assessing the claim that there has been no improvement in recent years.

To verify this, FactCheck.lk consulted export data published by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL).

Is the annual export growth rate between 1978 and 2024 6.75%?

FactCheck.lk interprets his statement as referring to goods exports, because comparable historical data going back to 1978 are not available for services exports.

FactCheck.lk’s calculation of the simple average of annual export growth rates between 1978 to 2024 yields 6.69%, which is close to the 6.75% cited by Dr. Dunusinghe.

Is export growth in 2025 similar or lower than the annual growth since 1978?

At the time the statement was made, CBSL export data was only available from January to September of 2025. To evaluate on the basis of information available at the time, the nine-month data was annualised and compared with exports of 2024.

Based on this calculation, exports were estimated to have grown by 6.6% in 2025. This figure is close to, and slightly lower than, the 6.69% rate we calculated for the post-1978 timeframe used by Dr. Dunusinghe for comparison. See Additional Note 1.

Is the post-1978 timeframe comparison appropriate for the claim?

Comparing the recent export growth in 2025 with the annual export growth since 1978 may not adequately capture the structural changes in Sri Lanka’s exports over the past two decades, where export growth has been considerably weaker. For instance, over the last 20 years (2005-2024), the simple average of annual growth rates was 4.3%; and for the last 10 years (2015–2024) it was 2.7%.

These figures show that although recent export growth does not represent a significant break from the very long-term post 1978 average, it is notably higher than the average growth recorded in the past 10 and 20 years.

In sum, the 6.6% export growth estimated for 2025 is not more than the post-1978 timeframe average, and therefore supports Dr Dunusinghe’s claim. But the comparison against the post-1978 timeframe is not appropriate for the claim he makes, that very recent performance does not show an improvement from the past – because, the average growth rate of exports were in fact much lower in the last 10 and 20 years than it was in 2025.

Therefore, we classify Dr. Dunusinghe’s statement as Partly True.

Additional Note 1: Since full-year 2025 export data are now available, FactCheck.lk also compared the actual 2025 outcome with the historical average. Based on the full-year data, exports grew by 6.3% from 2024 to 2025. This is also less than the average growth rate of 6.69% in the post-1978 timeframe used by Dr. Dunusinghe, and much larger than the average rate in the last 10 and 20 years.