Fact Check
MP Dilith Jayaweera claims that (i) the number of people suffering from extreme poverty in this country has exceeded 25%, and (ii) the country has fallen to the very bottom in terms of poverty.
To verify the claim, FactCheck.lk consulted the World Bank Poverty and Inequity Platform and the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) Poverty Indicators for 2019.
Claim 1: The World Bank has published an estimate of 24.5% for Sri Lanka’s poverty rate in 2024. Exhibit 1 shows that in 2019, the latest year in which the national poverty rate was officially reported, it was 1.27 times higher than the World Bank’s estimates. Applying that multiplier to the World Bank’s recent poverty estimates and projections yields a national poverty rate “exceeding” 25%, as the MP claims.
Claim 2: FactCheck.lk interpret “fallen to the very bottom in terms of poverty” to mean that: (a) Sri Lanka’s current poverty rate is a historical low (looking at the last 25 years); and/or (b) Sri Lanka currently ranks towards the bottom globally in managing its poverty level.
Historically, Sri Lanka’s poverty rates for 2023 and 2024 are the second and fourth highest between 2002 and 2025. This places the current period close to the bottom of Sri Lanka’s history since the turn of the century.
Cross-country comparison: Using the lower-middle-income country poverty line of USD 3.65 (2017 PPP), Sri Lanka’s estimated poverty rate for 2024 falls just around the lowest quartile. Specifically, Sri Lanka’s 2024 poverty rate ranks 90th out of 121 countries, based on the latest available poverty rates for those countries. This corresponds to Sri Lanka being placed just around the first quartile (25.6 out of 100).
In sum, using the best available data and reasonable estimates of the national poverty rate, Sri Lanka’s poverty rate has been above 25% since 2022, reaching its highest level in 2023. This is close to the worst performance on poverty outcomes relative to both its own history and the most recent poverty rates of other countries, justifying the claim that Sri Lanka “has fallen to the very bottom in terms of poverty.
Therefore, we classify the MP’s claim as TRUE.
Additional Note 1: A recent 10,062-sample, nationally representative survey conducted by LIRNEasia found that in 2023, 31% of Sri Lankans were below the December 2022 national poverty line (Rs. 13,777 per month).
This figure (31%) closely aligns with the 31.7%, derived by multiplying the World Bank Estimate by the average historical gap (1.17) and the 34.3%, derived by multiplying it by the 2019 multiplier. This further supports the MP’s claim that poverty has exceeded 25%.
Exhibit 1: National vs World Bank ($3.65) Poverty Rates in Sri Lanka, 2002–2025
*Estimate
**Projection
Source: Department of Census and Statistics: Poverty Indicators 2019 https://www.statistics.gov.lk/Poverty/StaticalInformation/PovertyIndicators-2019
Sri Lanka Development Update (April 2025): https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099416504222514112/pdf/IDU-5b9c001a-8831-43a2-92e7-71fbee0f642e.pdf
Exhibit 2: Sri Lanka’s Historical Poverty Rates Ranked Against Current Estimates.
*Estimate
**Projection
Source: Department of Census and Statistics: Poverty Indicators 2019 https://www.statistics.gov.lk/Poverty/StaticalInformation/PovertyIndicators-2019
Sri Lanka Development Update (April 2025): https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099416504222514112/pdf/IDU-5b9c001a-8831-43a2-92e7-71fbee0f642e.pdf
Exhibit 3: Sri Lanka’s 2024 Poverty Rate Ranked Against the Latest Poverty Rates of Other Countries since 2019.
Notes: The poverty rates were arranged in descending order; the higher the poverty rate, the lower the ranking.
National surveys used to determine the poverty rate may be measured through income or consumption. Sri Lanka’s poverty rate is based on consumption. Where countries had poverty rates for both income and consumption, the poverty rate derived from consumption was used for comparability with Sri Lanka.
Sources
Poverty and Inequality Platform | The World Bank (https://pip.worldbank.org/country-profiles/LKA)
Sri Lanka Development Update (April 2025): https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099416504222514112/pdf/IDU-5b9c001a-8831-43a2-92e7-71fbee0f642e.pdf
Poverty and Inequality Platform Methodology Handbook | The World Bank (https://datanalytics.worldbank.org/PIP-Methodology/welfareaggregate.html#incomeorconsumption)