Dilith J’s criticism of RW: more gas than substance

Fact Check

Dilith Jayaweera, leader of the Mawbima Janatha Pakshaya (MJP) claims: (1) that the former President Wickremesinghe increased the prices of oil and gas, fourfold; and (2) that the subsequent absence of gas queues during his presidency was a result of consumption declining by 40%.

To verify these claims, FactCheck.lk consulted monthly retail prices for petrol, diesel, and gas from the Department of Census and Statistics Monthly Inflation releases, and import data for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the Export Development Board (EDB).

On claim 1: FactCheck.lk analysed price trends both before and after President Wickremesinghe took office in July 2022. Prices were analysed with data starting from October 2021, which marked early signs of the economic crisis that eventually led Sri Lanka to default on external debt payments in April 2022.

Between October 2021 and July 2022 prices for petrol, diesel, and gas rose, peaking in July 2022. Diesel prices increased the most, rising fourfold; petrol prices increased by 2.9 times, and gas prices rose by 2.5 times during this period, alongside an unprecedented currency depreciation (see Exhibit 1). These developments occurred prior to Wickremesinghe assuming the office of president on 20 July 2022.

Furthermore, after Wickremesinghe became president oil and gas prices did not continue to increase and even declined somewhat (see Exhibit 1). Therefore, attributing the agency of price increases to Wickremesinghe cannot be substantiated by the data.

On claim 2: FactCheck.lk used import data for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to evaluate consumption. The data shows a 36.6% reduction in LPG imports in 2022 compared to 2021. This figure is close to the 40% decline cited by Jayaweera. This decline in LPG imports, alongside the ending of queues, suggests reduced demand for purchasing gas. Even in 2023, LPG imports remained 17.0% lower than pre-crisis levels of 2019. Therefore, the claim of gas consumption reducing is supported by the data. This factcheck has not attempted to assess the implied claim that ending of queues occurred due to the reduced ability to purchase gas.

In summary, the increases in the prices for petrol, and gas are overstated, and also cannot be attributed to Wickremesinghe’s presidency as claimed.  However, the claim that there was a large reduction in gas consumption is supported by import data.

Therefore, we classify Jayaweera’s claim as PARTLY TRUE.

*FactCheck.lk’s verdict is based on the most recent information that is publicly accessible. As with every fact check, if new information becomes available, FactCheck.lk will revisit the assessment.

Exhibit 1: Monthly Average Open Market Retail Prices