Premadasa’s migrant workers’ claim holds up in thin air

Fact Check

During the parliament debate on the Iran-Israel conflict, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa made two claims regarding migrant remittances and their regional concentration: (1) In 2024, Sri Lanka received USD 6.57 billion in foreign worker remittances, and (2) 80% of Sri Lanka’s foreign workers are employed in the Middle East.

To verify these claims, FactCheck.lk consulted the Annual Statistics of Foreign Employment 2023, Sri Lanka Bureau of Foreign Employment (SLBFE), Annual Economic Review 2024 Quarterly Bulletin Of Workers’ Remittances and Labour Migration by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), and National Policy and Action Plan on Migration For Employment – Sri Lanka (2023 – 2027), and United National Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), International Migrant Stock 2024.

On Claim 1: CBSL statistics on foreign remittances, which are sourced from licensed banks, indicate that total foreign worker remittances were USD 6.57 billion for 2024. This aligns with the figure cited by the opposition leader.

On Claim 2: This claim appears to be referring to the total number of Sri Lankan migrant workers currently residing abroad. However, the data available is thin. There are no official government sources, not even the SLBFE, that report the count of migrant workers currently living abroad. In the absence of such data, the best usable indicator to deduce the regional distribution of migrant workers might be the annual departures for foreign employment, which seems to have been reported by CBSL (but see Additional Note 1 on issues with that reporting).

The CBSL’s latest worker remittances and labour migration data (sourced from SLBFE) shows that between 2022 and 2024, on average, approximately 80% of departures for foreign employment were to Middle Eastern countries. It is likely that the MP’s cited figure of “80% [of migrant workers] are employed in the Middle East” is derived from this source or derivative sources.

In sum, despite limitations in official data on migrant remittances, claim 1 is supported by CBSL data.  Claim 2, regarding the concentration of workers in the Middle East, accurately reflects the official data on annual worker departures. While this data provides only thin support for deducing the total migrant population (further unpacked in the additional note), the regional distribution of it serves as a useful proxy for deducing the ratio of the migrant population in the middle east.

Therefore, we categorise the MP’s claim as TRUE.

Additional Note 1: The numbers reported as departures by the CBSL are the same as what is recorded as registered workers by the SLFBE. However, what the SLFBEdataset contains, according to sources at SLFBE, is not recorded departures, but registrations with intent to depart. Some of those who register may not depart, and others may depart without registering. The SLFBE sources maintain that the data also includes registrations not just from the current year but also from the previous year, as well as those that have renewed their registration after the first two years.

*FactCheck.lk’s verdict is based on the most recent information that is publicly accessible. As with every fact check, if new information becomes available, FactCheck.lk will revisit the assessment.