Wasantha Bandara’s numbers “cleared” for SL-US exports

Fact Check

Dr. Wasantha Bandara made two claims regarding Sri Lanka’s trade relationship with the United States: (1) 25% of Sri Lanka’s export earnings come from the US, and (2) Sri Lanka has an 88% trade surplus with the US.

To verify these claims, FactCheck.lk consulted data from the External Statistics of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), the United States International Trade Commission (USITC) trade data and the White House statement on reciprocal tariffs dated April 2, 2025.

Claim 1: US share of exports

Dr. Bandara did not specify the period for his 25% figure. Therefore, FactCheck.lk looked at: (i) the most recent annual data (Sri Lanka’s total goods exports in 2024), and (ii) the five-year average share of exports to the US (2020–2024).

CBSL data shows that Sri Lanka’s total goods exports in 2024 were USD12.8 billion. Exports to the US accounted for $2.9 billion of this, which is 23% of the total. The average share of exports to the US from 2020 to 2024 stands at approximately 24%.

Both figures closely align with Dr. Bandara’s claim of 25%.

Claim 2: Trade surplus percentage

Dr. Bandara claim appears to originate from a calculation first popularised by the Trump administration when announcing reciprocal tariffs on April 2, 2025. This method defines the trade deficit with Sri Lanka from the US’s perspective, based on data reported by US authorities.

Based on US-recorded data for 2024, the US has a trade deficit with Sri Lanka of 88%. This figure is calculated as US exports to Sri Lanka minus U.S. imports from Sri Lanka, as a percentage of total U.S. imports from Sri Lanka.  It is this figure that is alternatively stated as Sri Lanka’s trade surplus with the US.

Sri Lanka’s trade surplus, as understood in Sri Lanka, would normally be calculated using data recorded by Sri Lankan authorities, which is not the same as the data recorded by US authorities. According to Sri Lankan data, exports to the US exceeded imports from the US by USD 2.5 billion in 2024, and total exports to the US was USD 2.9 billion. This gives a trade surplus of 85% —which is the more correct figure from the Sri Lankan perspective.

Both calculations yield proximate figures, with the difference due to discrepancies in how the two countries record trade data. Dr Bandara is using one of these calculation, which has been widely accepted without official contestation.

Therefore, we classify Dr. Bandara’s statement as TRUE.