• මුල් පිටුව
  • අප ගැන
    • අපි කවුරුන්ද?
    • අපගේ ක්‍රියාවලිය
    • අප කණ්ඩායම
  • ඇගයුම් ක්‍රියාවලිය
    • අපගේ ශ්‍රේණිගත කිරීම්
    • නිවැරදි කිරීම් පිළිබඳ ප්‍රතිපත්තිය
  • බ්ලොග් සටහන්
  • පෙර විශ්ලේෂණ
  • සම්බන්ධ වන්න
  • E සි த

Claim

Rajitha Senaratne

United National Party

[The number in Sri Lanka considered to have contracted Covid-19] is determined only by the number of people that have been tested for the virus. Symptoms of Covid-19 appear only in 15% [of the infected]. Others become carriers of the virus after being infected by it. South Korea tests 8,000 per million people. However, our country only tests 100 per million people.

Mawbima: 12 Apr 2020

Partly True

Statement

[The number in Sri Lanka considered to have contracted Covid-19] is determined only by the number of people that have been tested for the virus. Symptoms of Covid-19 appear only in 15% [of the infected]. Others become carriers of the virus after being infected by it. South Korea tests 8,000 per million people. However, our country only tests 100 per million people.

Fact check

Former Health Minister Senaratne correctly diagnoses underestimation of Covid-19 cases but overstates extent

In his statement, former Health Minister Rajitha Senaratne made the overall claim that the number of people reported as having Covid-19 in Sri Lanka is a significant underestimate due to three reasons:

  • Only tested and confirmed cases are reported, those who are infected but not tested are not counted.
  • Only 15% of those infected develop symptoms of Covid-19, while the others can be carriers without showing symptoms.
  • Sri Lanka has a low rate of testing at 100 per million people, in contrast to South Korea which has tested 8,000 per million.

This fact check evaluates the former minister's overall claim by evaluating the specific reasons and facts provided in support of the overall claim.

The former minister is right in his first assertion. The statistic of confirmed cases significantly undercounts the number of infected cases, in line with the minister's assertion. [For more details see https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing]

The second assertion states that only 15% develop symptoms, and 85% do not, implying that those who do not show syptoms may not be tested. Because of the preliminary and limited nature of the data available among the several studies done (see Annex 1 for a list of studies), it should not be possible to assert such a number conclusively. There is also a difference between not showing sypmtoms during the early stage of the infection and never showing symptoms through the full infection period; in other words, the difference between being pre-symtomatic and asymtomatic. Currently available studies show that many people who test positive don’t show symptoms (the estimates are in a wide range from below 20% to above 80%). The World Health Organization also suggests that 75% of such cases can go on to develop symptoms later. Therefore, the claim that only 15% show symptoms (which means 85% never show symptoms at all) could be considered an overstatement, on the information available at present.

The third assertion is on Sri Lanka’s relative rate of testing. The cumulative number of tests conducted per million people increases on a daily basis. The figures cited by the minister are correct as of the 31 March – when the relevant statistics for Sri Lanka and South Korea were 104 and 8,008 respectively. However, because the first local case in South Korea was on 22 January, and the first local case in Sri Lanka was on 09 March, this testing statistic, if evaluated against time passed since the first case, gives a lower relative difference of 159 for South Korea and 104 for Sri Lanka (on the 23rd day).

Overall, the minister’s claim that the number infected in Sri Lanka would be much larger than the number of reported cases is supported by his reasoning – that the total number of those infected are not counted due to: not being detected through testing; not being discovered due to lack of symptoms; and limited testing. The specific numbers he ascribes to lack of symptoms and lack of testing can be seen as over-stating the applicable magnitudes, even while they remain applicable as reasons for the over-all claim.

Therefore, we classify the minister's statement as PARTLY TRUE.

Appendix 1: Proportion of asymptomatic infections based on various studies

Exhibit 1: Covid-19 tests in Sri Lanka and South Korea

Sources

World Health Organization, Covid-19 - Virtual Press Conference, 1 April 2020 Retrieved from https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcripts/who-audio-emergencies-coronavirus-press-conference-full-01apr2020-final.pdf?sfvrsn=573dc140_2 [Last accessed 20 May 2020]

World Health Organization, Covid-19 - Virtual Press Conference, 1 April 2020

Sutton D. et al, Universal Screening for SARS-CoV-2 in Women Admitted for Delivery, New England Journal of Medicine, 13 April 2020

Mizumoto K. et al, Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020, EuroSurveillance, 12 March 2020

Kimball A. et al, Asymptomatic and Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Residents of a Long-Term Care Skilled Nursing Facility — King County, Washington, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 27 March 2020

Day M., Covid-19: identifying and isolating asymptomatic people helped eliminate virus in Italian village, British Medical Journal, 27 March 2020

Gudbjartsson D. et al, Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population, New England Journal of Medicine, 14 April 2020

Day M., Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate, British Medical Journal, 2 April 2020

Wanwan, S., Feng, L., Jinren, P., Jian, C., Ziping, M., Shelen, L., … Enfu, C. (2020). Epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus family clustering in Zhejiang Province . Retrieved from http://rs.yiigle.com/yufabiao/1184842.htm


Right of Reply

Leave a Comment.

0 Comments

විශේෂාංග ලිපි

  • වඩාත් කියවා ඇති ලිපි
  • නවතම ලිපි

FactCheck.lk පිළිබඳව ගම්මන්පිල මහතා දැක්වූ ප්‍රතිචාරය සම්බන්ධයෙන් අපි කණගාටු වෙමු

18 May 2020

Read More

FactCheck.lk විශ්ලේෂණ වෙත ප්‍රතිචාර නොදක්වයි, FactCheck.lk වෙත ප්‍රසිද්ධියේ විවේචන එල්ල කරයි

30 May 2020

Read More

FactCheck.lk expresses its disappointment with former MP Udaya Gammanpila’s statement

26 May 2020

Read More

திரு உதய கம்மன்பிலவின் அறிக்கை குறித்து FactCheck.lk தனது அதிருப்தியை தெரிவித்துக் கொள்கின்றது.

26 May 2020

Read More

Gammanpila does not respond to the analyses done by FactCheck.lk but criticises FactCheck.lk publicly

04 June 2020

Read More

FactCheck.lk முன்னெடுத்த மதிப்பீடு குறித்து கம்மன்பில எந்தவித பதிலும் அளிக்காத போதும், FactCheck.lk குறித்து பொதுவெளியில் விமர்சிக்கின்றார்.

10 June 2020

Read More

Budget Check 2021

01 December 2020

Read More

Budget Check 2021

01 December 2020

Read More

FactCheck.lk முன்னெடுத்த மதிப்பீடு குறித்து கம்மன்பில எந்தவித பதிலும் அளிக்காத போதும், FactCheck.lk குறித்து பொதுவெளியில் விமர்சிக்கின்றார்.

10 June 2020

Read More

Gammanpila does not respond to the analyses done by FactCheck.lk but criticises FactCheck.lk publicly

04 June 2020

Read More

FactCheck.lk විශ්ලේෂණ වෙත ප්‍රතිචාර නොදක්වයි, FactCheck.lk වෙත ප්‍රසිද්ධියේ විවේචන එල්ල කරයි

30 May 2020

Read More

FactCheck.lk expresses its disappointment with former MP Udaya Gammanpila’s statement

26 May 2020

Read More

திரு உதய கம்மன்பிலவின் அறிக்கை குறித்து FactCheck.lk தனது அதிருப்தியை தெரிவித்துக் கொள்கின்றது.

26 May 2020

Read More

FactCheck.lk පිළිබඳව ගම්මන්පිල මහතා දැක්වූ ප්‍රතිචාරය සම්බන්ධයෙන් අපි කණගාටු වෙමු

18 May 2020

Read More
අපි මීළඟට සොයා බැලිය යුත්තේ කුමන ප්‍රකාශයද?

Harin Fernando

The highest amount of debt repayment has to be done in 2021 and in 2022

Mahinda Rajapaksa

“The debt crisis created in this country by the Yahapalana Government has now reached a critical sta...

ඡන්දය ලබා දෙන්න

ප්‍රකාශය ඉදිරිපත් කරන්න

නිර්නාමිකව ඉදිරිපත් කරන්න
Hover Text
වැඩිදුර කියවන්න

පුවත් නිවේදන ලබාගැනීමට ලියාපදිංචි වන්න

අපගේ නවතම පුවත් පිළිබඳ සතිපතා නිවේදන ඔබේ විද්‍යුත් තැපෑල වෙත ගෙන්වා ගන්න.

Copyright © 2020

Web Design & Development by SABERION